Ok, I've warned everyone that I engage in crankery from time to time. So without further ado, I shall espouse my own personal crank theory, defend it with bile and rhetoric from any who dare to point out my errors, ignore any evidence which contradicts my claims, and inform you all that I will soon be receiving a Nobel prize for my 'work', assuming one of you thieving bastards doesn't steal it and publish before me.
Well, okay... I'm not going to do most of that, but I am going to tell you all my own pet theory about the Lunar Effect. Feel free to debunk away, I'm not trying to convince anyone, just trying to start a new topic which can be twisted into yet another argument about whether cranks or skeptics are the more moral folk.
Ok, here's my 'theory'. Studies of the effects of the full moon on crime and accidents tend to be evenly divided between those which support the notion that the full moon makes weird things happen, and those which find no (or a negative) correlation between the two. Most skeptics take the position argued in the conclusion of those papers with negative results; namely that the very existence of the "The full moon makes crazy things happen," meme causes police and health care workers to unconsciously fall victim to the confirmation bias. They believe there's more accidents and crime on nights of a full moon, so they remember those criminal acts and accidents which occur on those nights better than those which occur on other night. They believe that the accidents and crimes which occur on those nights tend to be weirder, so their memories focus on the weird aspects of those events, while discounting or minimizing the weird aspects of events which take place on other nights.
I consider this extremely likely myself. I'm as close to fully convinced as I can be that confirmation bias and selective memory play a huge role in this common perception.
But to suggest that this idea explains the apparent Lunar Effect fully seems to be overreaching. My idea is this: This confirmation bias works not only on the police and health care workers in these cases, but on the criminals and patients, too. It's the same general principle: People believe that the full moon will make them act out, so they act out when they realize that there's a full moon out. Criminals get more brazen, partygoers get drunker, clumsy people get clumsier, crazy people get crazier and they all get a bit more whimsical.
So the end result if I'm right is that there is a small increase in the number of such incidents on full-moon nights, and that this small increase becomes a large increase in the minds of those most exposed to them.
Now, feel free to debunk, destroy, evince, counter-evince, complain, whine, hurl accusations of hypocrisy, homosexuality and immorality at me, whatever.
I'm most interested in the debunking tho... If anyone has a good link to blow my 'theory' away, feel free to share. If not, but you want to debunk anyways, I'll get you started.